Tuesday, April 10, 2018
Sunday, March 4, 2018
FDI in India
FDI – Astute Conduit for Trade
Integration and Sustainable development – 2nd March
Keynote Speech Delivered in the
International Conference on FDI Held by Department of International Business,
Alagappa University.
R.Kannan, Hinduja Group
Shri.
Prof. Subbiah, the Honble Vice Chancellor of the Alagappa University, Shri.Karunakaran, Secretary to
Government of Tamil Nadu, Dr. Narayana Murthy, Member of the Syndicate, Prof.
Guru Mallesh Prabhu, Registrar of the University, Prof. Manickavasagam, Dean ,
Faculty of Management, Prof. UthayaSuryan, Prof.Muthuswamy, Ladies and
Gentlemen, Good morning to all of you.
Indian
Economy plays a major role in the growth of the world Economy today. Investors
across the world are interested in investing in India . In the last four years,
the FDI received by India crossed $ 200 bn. The interest of international
investors in India is increasing and in Conferences organised by various
states, Foreign Investors are committing billions and billions Dollars of
investments in the states.
In
this context, Department of International Business , Alagappa University is
conducting an international conference on FDI, Trade Integration and
Sustainable Development. In these two days, apart from the Speakers from Other
countries, Experts from India are also participating. Several paper
presentations were scheduled during this conference.
I
am happy to be part of the programme and look forward to learn new concepts and
perspectives on FDI . Am sure , all the participants will benefit a lot from the
proceedings.
I
would like to Congratulate Department of International Business, Algapppa
University in Choosing this important Subject for the Conference and wish the Seminar a great Success.
Global Economy
Global
growth outlook is benign and augurs well for India, particularly for its export
prospects. Both the IMF and the World Bank note a tangible improvement in the
growth prospects of the US, the Euro Area and Japan. As per the World Bank
(Global Economic Prospects, January 2018), global growth is estimated to pick
up from 2.4% in 2016 to 3% in 2017 and further to 3.1% in 2018. This recovery
is broad-based and largely attributable to a rebound in global investment.
Growth in advanced economies is projected to moderate during 2019-20 while that
in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to increase
further to 4.5% in 2018 and average at 4.7% in 2019-2020. In the Euro area,
growth is estimated to improve to 2.4% in 2017 with broad-based improvements
across member countries supported by policy stimulus and strengthening external
demand. In Japan, GDP growth is estimated to recover to 1.7% in 2017 supported
by a recovery in consumer spending and investment as well as the implementation
of a fiscal stimulus package but growth is projected to slow down to 1.3% in
2018 as fiscal stimulus is withdrawn and export growth moderates.
Global trade growth is expected to decelerate in 2018, to 4.3% from 4.6%
in 2017. Reflecting the broad-based acceleration in the global economy, trade
growth picked up in both OECD and non-OECD economies in 2017. According to the
Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, export growth was especially
strong from emerging markets—where exports grew by 4.8% year on year in January
to November, compared with 3.8% export growth in advanced economies. Despite
the global economy seeing continued strength in 2018, the global trade growth is
expected to slow modestly in line with a deceleration in China's economy, given
its outsized role in global supply chains. It is expected that the authorities' move in 2017 to tighten
credit conditions to have a lagged impact on investment and consumption growth
in 2018, particularly as regulators tighten controls over household loans.
Indian
Economy :
India’s growth prospects have become stronger both in the short
and the medium term. Last quarter, the Economy grew by more than 7% , again ,
becoming the fastest growing Major Economy in the world. The World Bank has projected India’s growth in
FY19 at 7.3% and IMF has projected it to be 7.4%. . The opportunity for India
re-emerging as a major contributor for global growth and sustaining this
position for many years is the prediction by the leading Economists in the
World. India will continue to do well and contribute to the Global Economic
growth in the coming years.
Global FDI :
Global flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) had fallen
by 16% in 2017 to an estimated US$ 1.52 trillion, from a revised US$ 1.81
trillion in 2016. While FDI in developing
countries remained at a level similar to the previous year, more investment in
sectors that can contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals is still badly
needed. Promoting FDI for sustainable development remains a challenge. FDI to
developed countries slumped by (minus) 27%, inflows into developing countries
remained stable, at an estimated US$ 653 billion, 2% more than the previous
year. Flows rose marginally in developing Asia and Latin America and the
Caribbean, and remained flat in Africa. Developing Asia regained its position as
the largest FDI recipient region in the world, followed by the European Union
and North America.
After three years of growth, cross-border mergers and
acquisitions declined in 2017. Their growth had already slowed in 2016, and
they went on to contract by 23% in 2017, to US$ 666 billion. However, this
still represented the third-highest level since 2007.
FDI to Developing Economies remained Stable at $653 bn, 2%
more than the previous year. FDI to transition Economies declined by 17% to $
55bn. Value of announced Green field projects showed a decline of 32% to $ 571
bn. The number of projects declined by 17%. In developing countries , project
values announced halved.
The tax reforms announced by FDI are likely to affect the
investment decisions announced by US MNEs, with consequences for global
investment patterns. I was attending a meeting on SelectUSAsummit day before
yesterday in Mumbai, where US officials want more investments into US from
India. At present FDI from India in US stands at $ 12 bn. They feel this can be
multiplied several times. They say, they regained their competitiveness through
lowered energy costs which off sets the lower cost of labour in China. They had
prepared an ambitious plan to revive their manufacturing sector.
In 2017, inflows to US reduced due to reduced inflows from
a number of offshore financial centres.
In UK, inflows declined by 90% due to the uncertainty created by Brexit.
Higher economic growth projections, trade volumes and commodity
prices would point to a potential increase in global FDI in 2018. However,
elevated geopolitical risks and policy uncertainty could have an impact on the
scale and contours of any FDI recovery in 2018. In addition, tax reforms in the
United States are likely to significantly affect investment decisions by US
multinationals, with consequences for global investment patterns.
India FDI
From
the year Apr 2000 to Sep 2017 , for which the data is available, India
attracted FDI of $ 518 bn including Equity flows, Re-invested earnings and
other capital. The FDI equity Inflows alone amounted $ 353.34 bn. In the first
six months of this fiscal $ 21.62 bn was received as FDI, which was 17% higher
than the previous year. This was a very good growth considering the lower
growth for other countries.
The
countries which have the leading share in investment of FDI in India in the
last 17 years include ; Mauritius 34%,
Singapore 17%, Japan 7%, UK 7%, Netherlands 6% and USA 6%.
The
sectors which have received the maximum FDI include , Services sector 17%, Telecom
8%, Computer Software 8%, Construction Development 7%, Automobile 7%.
The
States which received the maximum FDI were : Maharashtra 31%, New Delhi
20%,Karnataka 8%, TN&Pondy 7% and Gujarat 5%. Now the states including UP,
AP and Telengana are attracting lot of FDI.
Factors Favouring High FDI in India
India
will continue to attract very high FDI due to the following reasons.
1. High
Economic growth. All the leading agencies in the world predict that Indian
Economy will continue to grow at more than 7% in the coming years and this will
exceed Chinas growth rate. High Economic growth rate provides opportunities for
high sectoral growth rates.
2. Rapid Urbanistion of Metros, Cities and even Rural
Areas. Due to digitization and penetration of mobile and data services is
enabling transformation of Metros, Cities and Villages. Apart from Agriculture,
several other opportunities have arisen on account of Digital Revolution.
- Ambitious development targets set by the Government for
various infrastructure Sectors. The Central Government and State
Governments had drawn up ambitious projects in the areas of, Industrial
Corridors ( Centre and States ) , Smart cities , Port Development, Railways
Development, Road Development, Affordable housing Development. This has
attracted the interest of Several countries around the world.
- Manufacturing Mission. India wants to increase
the share of Manufacturing from 16% in GDP to 25% in GDP. With this in
view, detailed strategies to develop 25 sectors under Make in India
Mission were formulated
and in the process of implementation.
- Apart from that Several programmes like Start Up
India, doubling Farmers Income, Digitising the nation and several well
defined and well thought out development programmes were introduced by the
Government to increase the GDP
growth.
- Now Commerce Ministry has drawn up a plan to look
at Industrial Development from Each Districts perspective and District
wise Industrial Developments plan would be made.
- Liberalisation of FDI. The government has
lineralised many sectors for FDI. In many sectors today, 100% FDI is
allowed. This has attracted the interest of investors across the world.
- DIPP under the Ministry of Commerce has an Agency
called invest India, whose main role to attract investments into India.
They have a detailed database of opportunities for investment in India,
which foreign investor can use. The data base is organized in terms of
Opportunities in States, Sectors and Sub Sectors. There are expert desks
created for different countries. In international investments, one of the
issue is , availability of information. The Agency plays a major role in
facilitating investments.
- Introduction of
good governance system by government through new regulatory
agencies. Indias regulatory agencies are highly regarded by others in the
world. When the whole world was under stress, due to prudential policies
developed by the agencies, India withstood the global melt down. New
agencies were created in many sectors today. This protects the investors
as well as customers. This enables a fair competition.
- Emergence of Several Globally competitive
Businesses. In the initial years, only Textile was globally competitive.
Now we have many sectors, which are globally competitive. The sectors
which have become globally competitive include Automobiles,Telecom,
Chemicals, pharma, IT, Gems and Jewellery, R&D, etc. Several more
industries will become competitive as we go forward.
- When large investments are made, it should give
good returns. In India, several sectors are profitable because of the
large population we have and the large volumes it provide. This is one of
the reasons for India’s attractiveness in the Global Scenario. Apart from
the large Size, Constant movement of people to higher categories of income
from one category at all levels,
creates demand for products at various price points.There is also an increasing
propensity to spend by people.
- Competition between States. Every state in India has drawn up a plan
to grow by more than 10%. Every year, they have started holding investment
meets where they invite investors from all over the world. In these
conferences, the investment opportunities are show cased and MOUs are
signed with the potential investors. They sign MOUs with both Indian and
Global Companies to increase the investments in the states.
- Increased
Foreign Investor Interest in
India and India sectors. Considering the big potential for growth,
Investors around the world are coming to India and exploring the scope for
investments. In the last year, I had met more than 60 Foreign Delegations
, which had shown interest in Investment in India. But one concern today
is due to increased protectionism, every country wants investments in
their own country. This is not going to affect the investments into India.
- Role
of Government AID Agencies /Pension Funds / Mutual Funds and Sovereign
Wealth Funds. Japanese Government Agency, JICA in collaboration with JBIC
has provided lot of funds projects in Infrastructure sector. Canadian
Pension funds in India have invested more than$ 10 bn. Abudhabi SWF has
decided to invest $ 1 bn in the Infrastructure
Finance Arm of the Government. There is lot of low yielding funds across
the world have to be deployed in attractive investment opportunities and
India provides a good scope for deployment of these funds.
- Part
of the Global Value Chain. India has become a part of the Global Value
chain in many sectors and many MNEs have set up a part of their operations
in India or adopting a strategy of outsourcing from India.
- Ease
of Doing business. India is one of the countries where ease of doing
business is within top 10 in the world as reported by AT Kearney FDI
investment Index. India ranks 7th in the Index. If result
oriented indicators like Economic growth rate, Growth rate of different
industries, profitability, Ease of obtaining finance and number of
entrepreneurs created every year , India’s rank should be in top 5. This
is one of the reasons, why FDI investments are increasing in India faster
than other countries in the world.
India
has got one of the highest savings rate in the world. At 30% of GDP and on $
2.5 trn, our savings in a year amounts to more than $ 750 bn a year. All of our future investment needs could be
met from only domestic sources. But investment pattern of savings is biased
towards investment in Real estate and Gold. Accumulated savings in India is
very high , which makes India a very strong country for investments.
In
Conclusion, India has a highly favourable Eco system for investments and other countries can not ignore
India’s attractiveness and MNEs around the world should look at India for their
global growth . The MNEs in India, should draw up aggressive plans for growth
in the Indian market and invest more in India. Indian companies should have
more participation in global value chains and more Indian companies should go
global and manufacture products in India to serve global markets. .Thank you.
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